Newbies usually pay very little attention to odds movement, though this fact may reveal a great deal about the upcoming event. Want to get the most of dropping odds? Then sit back and enjoy the most extensive information on this kind of betting strategy.
Dropping odds represent a significant increase in the total amount of bets on a certain event associated with the change of odds on the deal. In other words, the odds drop when a lot more money is wagered on one of the outcomes. Bookmakers are forced to cut the odds on rather popular picks to mitigate their own risks.
Let’s check out the real dropping odds on the quarter finals of the UEFA Champions League 2020/2021, Manchester City FC vs Borussia Dortmund FC. The original odds for the home team to win are 1.75. However, the odds immediately before the game are around 1.3 – 1.37. The reason is obvious: much more money was wagered on the win of Manchester City than was wagered on Borussia Dortmund.
Although, the odds may also move due to some common causes:
This type is primarily associated with match fixing (when non-sports events take place). However, bookies have already mastered the skill of reacting quickly to such developments. They just close the line on time and void the bets.
Deliberate dropping odds may also relate to fair play. For example, when truly substantive information that may influence the potential outcome of the match is leaked. Bookmakers usually become aware of such news really quickly, and can well cut the odds in advance.
Surebets also affect deliberate odds as gamblers are massively betting on particular outcomes.
A spontaneous nature of the odds occurs when most gamblers are certain about one particular outcome. It frequently happens with the most popular competitions (the above mentioned fixture between Man City and Borussia Dortmund is an excellent example).
Spontaneous odds feature multiple bets, and values of such deals are not necessarily considerable. The odds drop due to an abundance of deals made. In the betting world this is also called public bet.
Movement by the geo feature may take place when gamblers are betting on their national team or some famous local club. This is best reflected in football when national or European competitions are held.
Two key strategies are usually applied to dropping odds:
Each strategy obviously has its pros and cons that we’re going to elaborate on further.
The strategy aims at waiting for peak odds to make a wager. The thing is that a possibility to win always remains, and potential profit is way higher though. One can bet on a favorite as well as on an outsider.
When in the match between the outsider and the favorite the odds drop in favour of the favorite, it makes sense to gamble on positive handicap between the range of 1.7 – 1.9 for the outsider team to win.
E.g.: Man City vs Borussia; the odds on handicap (+2) go up from 1.19 to 1.51 for the win of team Man City. The potential profit when betting $100 has increased from $19 to $51, but the success rate remains the same.
If the odds for the outsider are dropping badly, it’s better to bet on the favorite team to win. Preferably wait till the odds go up to at least 1.5.
E.g.: Juventus vs Fiorentina; the odds on the win go up from 1.25 to 1.5 for team Juventus. The potential profit when betting $100 has grown from $25 to $50.
It’s crucial to wager TO at the very beginning of the match, and the competition should fall within the certain criteria:
E.g.: Man City vs Borussia; the odds on TO 2.5 are at the range of 1.86 when the betting line opens. When the odds drop, the range moves down to 1.61. If the gambler makes a bet before the odds drop, the potential profit will be higher by $25.
The best possible time to wager TU is before the line is closed, but only under the following conditions:
E.g.: Juventus vs Fiorentina; the original odds on TU 2.5 are 2.2. When the odds on TO 2.5 drop, the prices for the event will increas to 2.6. The obvious benefit here is $40 when betting $100.
Betting dropping odds can be thrilling and rather exciting. But given the fact that all these strategies have little effect, they don’t usually guarantee a 100% profit even in the long run, in contrast to surebets.