Correct Score Betting Strategy in Football

Quite a lot of gamblers try to predict the final score of a match, though, this ain't easy. Some of them claim that it is impossible to guess the exact score in sports betting.

Is it really inevitable to gamble all your money away when placing a correct score bet? Let's try to find it out!

Exact Score in football

The exact score in football represents the number of goals scored by each team in a match. In other words, you’ll have to predict the correct amount of goals scored by the first and the second team. It’s not all about the specific final score, so a careful analysis of the games is required.

Correct score bet


Let's check out the following example: a gambler predicts the full time of the final match of the Champions League 2020/2021 Manchester City - Chelsea will end by a score of 1:1. In fact, the Pensioners have won by a score of 0:1. Accordingly, the bet is estimated as a loss, because he forecasted the exact number of goals just for one team.

Many bettors are sure that it is just impossible to foresee the accurate result. But the situation will differ in practice, since sports betting is based on math. According to statistics, about 11% of all football matches end with 1:0, and another 11% end with 0:0. Moreover, half of the matches result in a victory of the home team. So the upshot is, that the probability of the hosts’ win by 1:0 is almost 24%.

Exact score example


As a rule, gamblers use statistics in order to calculate the exact score. However, they also do not hesitate to use a variety of strategies that can significantly reduce the risks. The most effective are listed below.

Choosing a team and a championship

Experienced bettors suggest placing bets on the correct score in football only in the lower leagues. It seems that it’s way easier to guess the result of the top championships, but instead, it’s better to point out lower league matches. And here is why:

  • bookmakers overestimate a margin (read: Odds formation. Bookmaker margin) for the top leagues, while high odds can be found in the lower league matches;
  • unexpected results are not that rare in the top leagues;
  • there are no top-notch players in the lower leagues who can accelerate the performance.

Arbitrage experts also advise you to take a closer look and choose the right team. It should be a club that consistently scores one or two goals and has a solid defense. If the player constantly keeps in mind such a team, then the analysis of the exact score will be much easier.

Types of Exact Score Strategies

There are many gambling strategies applied for correct score in football, and some of them really help to boost your success rate. Exact score betting strategies are also used in tennis and hockey, but most commonly are used in football. See below the most popular and working systems.

Exact score +/- 1

Here you are supposed to pick four matches and predict 20 single bets out of them. Initially, a gambler must select the potential final score for each match, and then form four more outcomes according to the principle of ditching / adding a goal to the predicted result (for example, for a 1:1 score, there will be four more options:
0: 1, 2: 1, 1 : 0, 1: 2). As a result, there will be a list of 20 scenarios generated, from which 15 betting options can be collected.

When you bet an equal amount on all the variants, the success is guaranteed if you predict the score of at least two matches. However, the complexity of this strategy is the search for a bookmaker that allows you to place only several bets out of a parlay.

27 Parlay Strategy

The concept lies in the selection of three matches without an obvious favorite. You are going to predict 3 most probable scores for each event, so there are 9 possible outcomes. The overall list would include 27 parlay bets (more on what is parlay bet).

On average, the common exact score is assessed by the bookmaker at 6.5, so the parlay bets odds made out of three events will estimate at 275. It turns out that even one win can pay off more than 10 attempts of using this strategy.

Double Strategy

The approach is based on statistics showing that over 11% of matches have been completed with a score of 1-0 and the home team has won in more than 50% of all the competitions. It follows that every fourth fixture ends with a 1:0 victory of the home team. Applying this strategy, all we have to do is to choose ten matches with a potential victory of the hosts, which means that half of them will end with a score of 1:0. Then we draw up the “2 out of 10” system only two successful matches are enough.

Outplay the bookies

Join our mailing list and learn to win a profit on EVERY event, regardless of who wins.

Done! Check your inbox!

Exact Score 1:0

This strategy is very similar to the previous one (“Double Strategy”), though there is one exceptional feature - the gambler should place 10 single bets after pointing out the potential outcomes. It’s vital to select events with at least 5.0 quote, so two successful bids completely cover the total amount of the player's bets eventually.

Exact Score 0:0

In almost all rounds of the championship of any top league, there is at least one match, that ends with 0:0. A draw is quite frequent in football, as well as a goalless draw. Normally this option possess rather high odds, so gamblers tend to place these bets more frequently. Tip: it’s better to choose leagues with many goalless matches.

Fan Strategy

The essence of it lies specifically in finding and wagering on 5-7 single bets for most probable outcomes of the game. At the same time, there should be no obvious favorite of the fixture. It is also important that the odds of each exact score overlaps the total bet amount (the quotation of each bet should not be lower than 6.0 for all selected outcomes).

Correct Score Data Offers (inside information)

Almost every gambler wants to hit the jackpot, which is what scammers make use of. There are a lot of so-called “insiders” and “pros” on the Internet who claim that they have information on the match fixing. However, you cannot trust any of those storytellers, as selling the exact score info for a particular match is 100% scam.

Nowadays, it is almost impossible to organize a fixed match due to the abundance of examinations and serious control. Moreover, people will not sell such information at cost of $10-20, as it is unprofitable (dropping odds, unjustified attention drawn to the match, etc.). So do not blindly trust people who are trying to sell the exact score or any other outcome information.


Correct score strategies are efficient, however, they cannot generate good profit on the ongoing basis. It is much better to work with surebets, with the help of which the gambler can count on a safe constant income.

Searching for surebets on your own is an extremely time-consuming process, indeed, but our tool comes to rescue. BetBurger analyzes the lines of over 100 bookmakers for surebets or valuebets to provide all the customers with a real chance to significantly increase their rate of return!

Artur Polianskyi
For today Artur has 12 years of betting experience, and he kindly shares his knowledge with the readers of our blog. In his articles, you will find many useful tips for different strategies and learn more about all types of bets.
Author profiles
You may also like
Artur Polianskyi
Jul 08, 2021
Artur Polianskyi
Jul 04, 2021
Artur Polianskyi
Jun 16, 2021