In this article, we would like to talk about the closing line and its benefits, as well as the correct ways to use it to increase the chances of winning. We’ll also tell you what important factors to consider when betting with a closing line.
The betting closing line means the last odds set by the bookies just before the start of the event. The term sets the final values for odds for the event, embodying the final opinion of the bookmakers on the probability of outcomes of said event.
The closing line is the sum of many factors: the number of bets wagered, key players being out / returning to play, weather conditions, etc. Whereas the bookmakers try to set their odds to provide themselves with the highest profit, regardless of the outcome of the event.
Let's take a look at the closing line as an example of the Premier League match between Manchester City and Chelsea. Immediately after setting the line (about 14 days prior), the odds for the win of the Cityzens were 1.62. A few days before the event, the odds had already dropped to 1.55, and before the start of the match, it finally was 1.44. As we can see from this example, the closing line turned out to be much lower than the opening line. It means that by placing our bets in advance, we have beat the closing line, already having some advantage over the other bettors.
You must understand that the closing line may not be the same for different bookies.
The CLV or the Closing Line Value is a metric used to evaluate the efficiency of sports betting predictions. With its help, one will be able to determine the accuracy and value of bets in comparison with the final odds on the betting market.
All you need to calculate the CLV is: to know the initial odds (the one when the bettor wagered a bet), and the final odds set at the time of closing the prematch market.
The formula for calculating the Closing Line Value is as follows:
CLV = YK – FK, where YK is the wagered odds, and FK is the final odds for the same event.
For example, we wagered a bet on the win of Man City at 1.62 odds, whereas at the time the line was closed, the same odds were already estimated as 1.44. In our case, we get CLV = 1.62 – 1.44 = 0.18.
A positive CLV value indicates that the wagered bet has a higher value than the odds on the closing line. This may mean that the chosen prediction was more accurate, or that the bettor got better odds than most other bettors. Accordingly, the chances of profit increased.
It is important to remember that the Closing Line Value is a relative metric, and is designed to be considered in the long run. The higher the average CLV value in the long run, the more likely it is for the bettor to make a profit from bets.
The answer is quite simple - to place winning bets. To do this, you need carefully analyze every event you choose. We have prepared for you some useful tips on this:
It is important to remember that betting on the closing line demands good analytical thinking and some luck.
The closing line value is an important metric in sports betting because it allows the bettor to evaluate the quality and profitability of its predictions. Here we summarized the main points why CLV is important:
If you want to maximize the chances of success in betting – it’s better to avoid betting on the closing line, because this system comes with a high risk of losing money. Instead of this, we recommend looking at well-proven and reliable strategies: surebets and value bets.
Of course, searching for value bets and surebets is hard and time-consuming process, but the BetBurger surebet service comes to the rescue. Our product is a powerful tool for quickly searching of surebets and value bets - both in Prematch, and in Live modes. With BetBurger scanner you will be able to get a list of the most profitable betting opportunities in a matter of seconds, as the service scans the lines of over 200 popular bookmakers from all over the world in more than 40 kinds of sports.
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