## Outplay the bookies

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Jul
14, 2022

Oct
24, 2022

Lots of bettors have heard abookmakerut the EV Betting, but not all of them understand how to apply said strategy in practice. As you may already understood, today we are going to focus on the value bets and understand their effectiveness through a real example.

EV betting is an effective betting strategy based on searching for profitable/undervalued by the bookmakerokmakers outcomes. The bettor is to scan for and bet only on the outcomes having more chances of winning than those estimated by the bookmakerokmakers. Value betting is not a win-win strategy, but it can bring bettors profit in the long run. Even better, if the EV betting is being combined with other systems, then the bettor can significantly increase the likelihood of its winnings in almost every bet.

Value bets are not being set out of thin air", they can be generated due to a variety of factors:

**Incorrect analysis of the event by the bookmakerokmakers**. Professional analysts working for the bookmakerokmakers can also make mistakes in assessing the real probability of the outcome. This factor is especially relevant for unpopular and uninformative sports championships.**The late reaction of the bookmakerokmakers to the changes taking place in the event**. The bookmakerokmakers do not always have time to track all changes in oddss, especially when it comes to live events. This allows the bettor to catch a suitable odds by the "slow" bookmaker.**Dropping odds in select outcomes**. The bookmakerokmakers begin to reduce (and sometimes significantly) their oddss set for the outcomes with dropping odds resulting in the valuation of the opposite bet.**bookmaker's mistakes**. The banal mistake of the employees of the analytical departments of the bookmakerokmakers can also become one of the impactual reasons for the EV betting. However, we do not recommend betting on such values because the bookmaker always finds its own mistakes and then pays the wagered and won bets with a 1.0 odds.

You can get and calculate Expected Values by using simple calculations, but it's useful to be able to evaluate the probability of an event on your own.

First you need to convert the oddss into a probability using the following formula:**V = (1/K)*100**, where V means the *percentage probability* and K is the bookmaker's odds.

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At this stage, you need to calculate not only the probabilities set by the bookmaker, but also your own ones. And then the value of the bet can be calculated using a simple formula:

**Val = VG/VB**, where VG means the bettor's probability, and VB is the bookmaker's one.

If the result (Val) is higher than 1, then you get a value bet that you can and should bet on.

Let's analyze the calculation of the Expected Value indicator using a real example. For our experiment, let’s take the "Ecuador wins" outcome in the 2022 World Cup group stage match between the national teams of Qatar and Ecuador. The bookmaker has set a 2.23 odds for the outcome of the event, while we rated the event with a 1.9 odds. Let's calculate the probability of the outcome and get the value of the bet.

**VB** = (1/2.23)*100 = 44.84%

**VG** = (1/1.9)*100 = 52.63%

**Val** = *52.63%/44.84%* = **1.17**

As you can see from the result, the value is lower than 1, meaning we have a strong value bet.

Value betting is widely used by experienced bettors due to the strategy having a number of undeniable advantages. We cannot describe all the "benefits" of EV Betting, but we certainly can tell you about the most important of them:

- value bets are highly effective in the long run, bringing 10-15% of the profit from the stake amount per month (on average);
- EV betting is more profitable than surebet betting, because using the strategy allows the bettor not to cover the second lever with another bet (probably to be lost later on);
- value betting allows the bettor to get tangible profits from a competent analysis of events. For example, you can find a "weak point" in the bookmaker's analysis of a certain championship and bet on its events exclusively.

Each bookmaker puts the margin into its oddss, collecting it from the bets wagered by the bettors. The usual margin is 3-5%, but there are the bookmakerokmakers charging their clients up to 8-10%.

The bookmakerokmaker margin plays a significant role in value betting. When calculating the betting probability, the bettor is not taking the margin into account, setting the equal chances of the teams as 50% to 50%. At the same time, the bookmakerokmakers will set the equal team chances as 52.5%, since the total probability must exceed 100% due to the size of the margin (in our case, we took the average margin value of 5%). So the bookmaker sees the probability of an event not as 100%, but as 105%.

When scanning for value bets, never account for a margin when calculating your own betting probability of the outcome of an event, but also do not forget that the bookmakerokmakers do so. This way you will be able to find more values, significantly increasing your chances of success.

It is quite time-consuming to search for value bets on your own - you need to manually evaluate the events and make all necessary calculations. However, in the world of betting, there are value bet scanners to make the process as easy as possible. Among the truly handy scanners, the special mention should certainly go to the BetBurger service.

Our value bet scanner automatically performs the entire labookmakerrious process of value bet scanning, offering you all suitable events in a matter of seconds. All you have to do then is wager your bet and wait for the result. BetBurger software analyzes data from over 200 bookmakerokmakers across 40+ of the most popular sports. With it, you can always easily and quickly find values using the EV betting strategy.

- Poker/Expected value // en.wikibooks.org
- Sports betting // en.wikipedia.org
- The Journal of Prediction Markets 2015 Vol 9 No 1 pp 1-14 // Expected Values And Variances In Bookmaker Payouts: A Theoretical Approach Towards Setting Limits On Odds — Dominic Cortis, University of Leicester, University of Malta

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