Value Bets V2

We appreciate your feedback regarding our Valuebets product. Despite its effectiveness and flexibility, it also had some drawbacks - namely the complexity of configuration and insufficient transparency. Taking all your requests into account, we decided not just to improve the existing product, but to almost completely rebuild it. Meet a new level of value betting: Valuebets V2

What has changed

The main update is that a bet is no longer identified as a valuebet based on the arbitrage opportunities it participates in. As a result, the Minimum arb count and Bookmakers for arb counting options will no longer be used in Valuebets V2. Instead, a bet is identified as a valuebet through a direct comparison of its odds with the corresponding odds from the selected Reference Line.

This leads to the second important update: the introduction of the Reference Odds option. In Valuebets V2, you can choose which odds will be used to compare with your bookmaker’s odds when identifying valuebets. Currently, three options are available: Avgline (our proprietary market-average no-vig line), Pinnacle (no-vig), and Betfair (no-vig).

The third update introduces no-vig odds as reference odds. Identifying a bet as a valuebet is mathematically possible only when using so-called true probabilities (or true odds). Therefore, even if we consider the odds from, for example, Pinnacle to be accurate enough to serve as a source of truth, we still need to remove the margin to obtain true probabilities from their implied probabilities.

Additionally, we have added the ability to use only those bets as reference that have sufficient liquidity on the reference bookmaker’s side (Minimum liquidity option). The idea is simple: the higher the liquidity, the more confident the bookmaker is in those odds, and the stronger they serve as a reference when identifying valuebets at other bookmakers.

What will happen to Valuebets V1

Please note that Valuebets V1 and V2 will coexist for some time, but we strongly encourage you to switch to V2, as our medium-term plans include phasing out V1.

P.S.: What remains unchanged is our use of Probability Advantage (PA) as the Valuebet %, instead of ROI (as used by other services). We maintain that calculating the Valuebet % based on ROI is not reliable enough, because this metric varies in quality across different odds ranges. As a result, it can underestimate strong value bets and overestimate riskier ones. The formulas are as follows:

PA=1/OddsTrue- 1/OddsBookmaker
ROI=OddsBookmaker / OddsTrue-1

and they are both interconnected as follows:

OddsBookmaker=ROI / PA

You can use our EV calculator to see the difference between PA and ROI for different odds values.